Chicago – Supporters of Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown released a poll that showed her in a very strong position if she were to run for Cook County Board President.
Pollster Dave Fako wrote in a polling analysis memo that Brown is “the best known among the challenger candidates, holding even more name ID than Forest Claypool…Brown has the foundations of a solid base needed to build a winning countywide campaign.” He also said, “Brown shows room for expansion and significant base consolidation throughout the City and outlying areas of Cook County, making her a credible, competitive candidate for Board President.”
Key findings in the poll were as follows:
Highest Name ID of Challengers. Clerk Brown’s name ID is 74%; Forrest Claypool is 71%; Toni Preckwinkle is largely unknown, with only 40% substantive recognition.
Brown leads Stroger and Preckwinkle, Neck and Neck with Claypool. Among voters who know all four candidates, Brown gets 30%, with Stroger at (8%), and Preckwinkle at (10%) and Claypool 34%, with a margin of error of 5.70%. Among all voters, Brown earns one–fifth of the vote (21%), leading Stroger by large margins (7%), and Preckwinkle, whose percentage remains the same (10%), and is in a competitive position for the lead against Claypool (33%).
Brown Can Grow Her Vote Significantly. This survey showed Clerk Brown garnering 40% of the African-American vote with two other African American candidates in the race. This solidly outpaced both other candidates. If Clerk Brown can coalesce the African American vote or one of these candidates did not run, she would expand her base significantly.
Right Time for Clerk Brown’s Message. Fako said voters’ concerns “fuel messages in support of Brown based on her fiscally responsible record, reform and independent
agenda, and advocacy in support of people.” Specifically, 42% of voters were concerned about fiscal issues and waste of tax dollars, one of Clerk Brown’s strong
suits.
Stroger’s Abysmal Ratings Across Cook County. Todd Stroger ’s job performance ratings as Board President have 82% grading him negatively, 64% of
which arrives from the intense “Poor” classification. Three fourths of African Americans and eight of ten undecided voters in the Board President
election rate his performance negatively.
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Survey Methodology:
Supporters of Dorothy Brown commissioned the survey. Fako & Associates, Inc., of Lisle, Illinois conducted the survey by telephone on April 21 – 22, 2009 using professional interviewers. F & A interviewed a random sample of 295 registered voters that are likely to vote in the February 2, 2010 Democratic Primary Election within Cook County, Illinois. This sample is a sub-set of a statewide poll of likely Democratic primary voters. A strict screening process was used to ensure that only likely voters in the February 2010 Illinois Democratic Primary Election participated in the survey. The interviews lasted an average of 9 minutes. Scientific sampling techniques using a listing of registered voters were used to give all registered voters living in a telephone-equipped household within Cook County an equal chance of being interviewed. The interviews were conducted in proportion to gender and regional shares of the vote based on past election data and known demographics. Weighting has been applied to the race demographic to bring this group into proportion with known data. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.70% within Cook County at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if the survey were replicated the results would be consistent for 95 out of 100 cases. The margin of error is higher among the various sub-groups.
